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The Political Axis is an English-language analysis publication that reads Türkiye as a balancing pivot between Europe, the Middle East, the Caucasus, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. It explains global and regional affairs in plain language and presents Türkiye's official positions and legal theses, anchored in treaties, UN documents and archival records.

Comprehensive Dossier· Events of 1915 Ottoman archives legal analysis Armenia

The Events of 1915: Archives, Law and the Path to Normalization

Neutral dossier on the Events of 1915: Ottoman archives, legal analysis, treaties, Armenian and scholarly views, and the 2022 Türkiye–Armenia talks.

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Why It Matters

The Events of 1915 are the wartime deportations and mass deaths of Ottoman Armenians, and they remain disputed on one decisive question: whether the legal term 'genocide' applies. Armenia, the Armenian diaspora, many historians and the governments or parliaments of dozens of states say it does. Türkiye acknowledges suffering and loss of life but rejects the label, argues that the record shows a wartime security measure rather than a plan of extermination, and calls for historians to examine all archives.

This pillar page sets out the documented chronology, the treaty framework, the legal tests of the 1948 Genocide Convention, and each side's argument in its own terms. It also tracks the Türkiye–Armenia normalization process since 14 January 2022. Türkiye's positions are attributed to Turkish official sources and other positions to theirs, in line with our Editorial Principles and Source Standards. The site uses 'Events of 1915', Türkiye's official term, and flags where terminology itself is contested.

Background

A Millennium of Coexistence and the Millet System

Armenians and Turks shared Anatolia for roughly a thousand years, under the Great Seljuks, the Anatolian principalities and the Ottoman Empire. In the Ottoman millet system the Armenian Apostolic community ran its own religious, educational and charitable institutions under a Patriarchate. Ottoman officials in the 19th century called it the millet-i sadıka ('loyal community'). Armenians held prominent roles as bankers, architects, merchants and court officials. Turkish accounts also cite the observations of the Prussian officer Helmuth von Moltke, who travelled in the empire in 1835–1839, as evidence of this coexistence.

Armenian historians add that non-Muslims were legally unequal. They paid special taxes, were subject to restrictions, and faced land seizures and tribal predation in the eastern provinces. The reforms of 1839, 1856 and the 1876 constitution were not consistently implemented. Both descriptions capture real features of the system.

Population figures are themselves disputed. Ottoman statistics put the Armenian population at roughly 1.3–1.5 million before the war, while the Armenian Patriarchate's 1912 estimate was about 2.1 million. Turkish official historiography holds that Armenians were a minority, under about 20 percent, across the eastern provinces. Armenian historians point to large concentrations in some districts, such as around Van, and argue that Ottoman figures undercount them.

1878, the Berlin Congress and the Revolutionary Committees

After the 1877–1878 Russo-Turkish War, Article 61 of the 1878 Treaty of Berlin obliged the Porte to carry out reforms in Armenian-inhabited provinces and to report to the Great Powers. Armenian Patriarch Nerses Varjabedian and Mkrtich Khrimian had sought European support at the Congress. In this climate two political committees emerged:

  • Hunchak (founded 1887, Geneva), a socialist party that aimed at independence through revolution.
  • Dashnaksutyun / ARF (founded 1890, Tbilisi), which began with reform and autonomy goals and adopted armed self-defense and guerrilla tactics.

The period includes the 1890 Kumkapı demonstration in Istanbul, unrest in Merzifon, Yozgat and Kayseri in 1893, the 1894 Sasun rebellion, and the seizure of the Ottoman Bank in Istanbul on 26 August 1896, organized by Karekin Pastırmacıyan. Armed fedayi bands led by figures such as Antranik, Dro, Paramaz, Hamazasp and Sabah Gülyan operated in the eastern provinces and the Caucasus.

The Ottoman state responded with force and created the Hamidiye irregular cavalry in 1891. The 1894–1896 massacres of Armenians are generally estimated by historians to have killed in the range of 100,000 to 300,000 people, and further massacres took place in Adana in 1909.

Ankara argues that the committees deliberately used insurrection and terror to provoke European intervention. Armenian sources and many historians describe the movement as a response to insecurity, unequal status and unfulfilled reforms. They note that most Armenians belonged to no revolutionary group.

The First World War and the 1915 Law

The Ottoman Empire entered the war in late 1914 and suffered a major defeat against Russia at Sarıkamış in January 1915. Armenian communities were divided in their loyalties. Many Ottoman Armenians served in the Ottoman army, while Armenian volunteer units formed under the Russian Caucasus Army. Turkish sources say these units fought alongside invading Russian forces and carried out attacks on Muslim villages in Van, Erzurum and Bitlis. Armenian sources point to the earlier violence against Armenian communities, and many historians add that Armenian soldiers in the Ottoman army were moved to labor battalions in early 1915.

In Van in April 1915, Armenian fighters took control of the city and Russian troops arrived in May. Ankara describes this as a rebellion behind the front. Armenian accounts describe self-defense against the violence of local officials. On 24 April 1915 Ottoman authorities arrested Armenian community leaders in Istanbul, an event Armenia and the diaspora commemorate each year.

The central legal instrument was the Relocation and Resettlement Law (Sevk ve İskân Kanunu). Its formal title was the Temporary Law on measures to be taken by the military against those who oppose government actions in wartime. It was adopted on 27 May 1915 and published in the official gazette Takvim-i Vekayi on 1 June 1915. Further regulations and the abandoned-property legislation followed in the autumn of 1915.

The two readings diverge sharply:

  • Ankara's reading: The law was a temporary military necessity to secure supply lines and rear areas against rebellion, supported by correspondence between War Minister Enver Pasha and Interior Minister Talat Pasha. Turkish sources point to provisions on protection, provisioning and property registration, and to later decrees ordering return.
  • Armenian and most scholarly readings: The deportations covered whole communities, including women, children and the elderly, and sent them on marches towards the Syrian desert with grossly insufficient provisions. Special Organization units and irregulars carried out massacres, and property was confiscated. They draw on Ottoman documents, German and Austrian diplomatic reports, the account of U.S. Ambassador Henry Morgenthau and later Ottoman tribunals.

The Casualty Dispute

No agreed figure exists, because pre-war census data are contested and wartime records are incomplete.

  • Armenia, the diaspora and many scholars cite about 1.5 million Armenian deaths. Academic estimates generally range from several hundred thousand to over a million.
  • Turkish historians commonly cite around 300,000 Armenian deaths from the relocation, attributing them to famine, disease, harsh conditions and attacks by brigands and tribes. They stress the very large Muslim civilian losses in Anatolia and the Caucasus in the same years, an argument advanced by historians such as Justin McCarthy. Armenian and other historians argue that this comparison does not explain or excuse the targeted nature of the deportations.

Postwar Proceedings and the Treaty Framework

The Ottoman courts-martial of 1919–1920 convicted several wartime officials, and Talat, Enver and Cemal were sentenced to death in absentia. Ankara argues these courts operated under Allied occupation pressure. British authorities detained around a hundred Ottoman suspects in Malta, and all were released in 1921 in an exchange for British prisoners. Turkish sources cite Malta as evidence that the British did not find sufficient evidence, while critics argue that the exchange was political and that documentation was incomplete.

The treaty record is as follows:

Instrument Date Relevance
Treaty of Sèvres 10 August 1920 Signed by the Ottoman government and the Allies, including the first Armenian republic, but never ratified. It was superseded by the Turkish War of Independence.
Treaty of Alexandropol December 1920 Between the Ankara government and the Dashnak-led Armenian republic.
Treaty of Moscow 16 March 1921 Between Ankara and Soviet Russia; fixed the northeastern frontier.
Treaty of Kars 13 October 1921 Between Türkiye and the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Georgian Soviet republics, with Russia; confirmed the Moscow border.
Treaty of Lausanne 24 July 1923 Recognized the Republic of Türkiye and guaranteed non-Muslim minority rights (Articles 37–45). It contained no accountability provisions and annexed a declaration of amnesty for offences committed between 1914 and 1922, which critics point to.

Both the 2009 Zurich Protocols (never ratified) and Ankara's diplomacy have treated the current border as defined by these treaties.

ASALA and JCAG-ARA Attacks, 1973–1984

In January 1973, an Armenian-American, Gourgen Yanikian, killed two Turkish diplomats in Santa Barbara, California. From 1975, ASALA (the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia, founded in Beirut) and the JCAG (Justice Commandos of the Armenian Genocide, later ARA) carried out attacks around the world. Turkish authorities say dozens of diplomats and their relatives and staff were killed, and that 31 of 32 JCAG-ARA attacks targeted Turkish representatives. The 7 August 1982 attack at Ankara's Esenboğa Airport and the 15 July 1983 attack at Paris-Orly, in which eight people died, were the deadliest. Ankara links ASALA to the Hunchak tradition and JCAG-ARA to the Dashnak wing. Terrorism scholars generally treat ASALA as a short-lived, left-nationalist group that lost support after civilian casualties. The question of how such groups relate to the wider recognition movement remains debated. For the broader security context, see Counter-Terrorism at the Source: Türkiye's Security Doctrine and Defense Industry.

Recognition and Normalization Timeline

Date Development
2001–2004 Turkish Armenian Reconciliation Commission (TARC) operates; the ICTJ legal analysis (2003) concludes the events can be described as genocide while stating that the Convention cannot be applied retroactively.
10 April 2005 Prime Minister Erdoğan proposes a joint commission of historians to President Kocharyan.
10 October 2009 Zurich Protocols signed, including a subcommission on the historical dimension; never ratified.
23 April 2014 Erdoğan issues a message of condolences to the grandchildren of Armenians who lost their lives, describing 'shared pain'.
2015 Centenary year: European Parliament resolution (15 April) and papal remarks; Türkiye rejects both.
2016 Bundestag adopts a resolution on the Armenian genocide (2 June).
2018 Armenia formally annuls the Zurich Protocols.
29 October 2019 U.S. House of Representatives adopts a recognition resolution; the Turkish Foreign Ministry rejects it.
24 April 2021 U.S. President Biden uses the term 'genocide'; Ankara rejects it.
14 January 2022 Special Representatives Serdar Kılıç and Ruben Rubinyan hold their first meeting in Moscow.
July 2022 Special Representatives agree in Vienna to allow third-country nationals and diplomatic-passport holders to cross the land border.
February 2023 The Margara crossing opens for earthquake aid.
June 2025 Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Erdoğan meet in Istanbul.
8 August 2025 Armenia and Azerbaijan initial a peace agreement text in Washington.

At the time of writing, the land border remains largely closed to general traffic.

Key Players & Positions

Armenia, the Church and the Diaspora

Armenia's government treats the Events of 1915 as the Armenian Genocide, a position reflected in the 1990 Declaration of Independence, which commits the state to pursuing international recognition. The Armenian Apostolic Church and diaspora organizations, including the ARF, share this view. They cite about 1.5 million victims and observe remembrance on 24 April. Armenian officials argue that the fact of the genocide is not a subject for a commission to rule on, and have often preferred talks on normalization to be separate from the history question. Since 2022, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government has pursued talks with Ankara without preconditions.

Parliaments and Governments Recognizing the Genocide

Dozens of states and many sub-national legislatures have adopted resolutions or statements. Examples include France (2001 law), the German Bundestag (2016) and the U.S. House and Senate (2019), and the U.S. executive (2021). The European Parliament has adopted several resolutions. Several governments, among them the United Kingdom, have historically not formally recognized. These bodies generally rely on historical scholarship and, in some cases, on the Convention's definition applied after the fact.

Scholars

The International Association of Genocide Scholars affirmed in 1997 that the events constitute genocide, and a majority of historians who specialize in the field hold this view. Prominent scholars include Raymond Kévorkian, Donald Bloxham, Ronald Grigor Suny and Vahakn Dadrian, as well as Turkish scholars such as Taner Akçam, who draw on Ottoman documents. Other scholars, including Guenter Lewy, argue that the available evidence does not establish centrally directed intent to destroy, and Turkish historians such as Yusuf Halaçoğlu emphasize the security context. Scholarly disagreement over specific documents persists, including the authenticity of the so-called Andonian telegrams.

Courts and International Law

In Perinçek v. Switzerland (Grand Chamber, 15 October 2015), the European Court of Human Rights held that criminal conviction for denying the 'Armenian genocide' as an 'international lie' violated freedom of expression, and said it was not called upon to decide the legal characterization of the events. In the 2007 Bosnia v. Serbia judgment, the International Court of Justice confirmed that genocide requires proven specific intent (dolus specialis). Ankara reads this as supporting its call for judicial standards. Critics note that the Convention is not retroactive and that historians can reach conclusions without a court ruling. For a full treatment, see The 1948 Genocide Convention and the Legal Criteria Applied to the Events of 1915.

Azerbaijan and Regional Actors

Azerbaijan aligns with Ankara's position. Russia's State Duma recognized the events in 1995 and again in 2005, and Russia remains the principal regional mediator and a party to the 1921 treaties.

Türkiye's Strategic Doctrine

Türkiye's Strategic Doctrine — The Events of 1915

  • Historians, not parliaments, should decide. According to the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Events of 1915 should be examined by historians with full archive access, not settled by third-country parliamentary resolutions. Ankara formalized this in the 10 April 2005 proposal for a Joint Historical Commission of Turkish, Armenian and international historians, open to Ottoman, Armenian and third-country archives.
  • Shared pain, not denial. In his 23 April 2014 message, the Presidency's predecessor in the premiership, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, offered condolences to the grandchildren of Armenians who lost their lives and called for 'just memory' (adil hafıza). Ankara holds that all communities suffered in the First World War and that remembrance should include Muslim civilian losses.
  • Relocation was a wartime security measure. The Turkish Foreign Ministry's published position holds that the 27 May 1915 law, published in Takvim-i Vekayi on 1 June 1915, responded to armed rebellion and collaboration with the invading Russian army. It rejects the claim that it was a plan of extermination and points to Ottoman wartime correspondence, to the Ottoman Archives in Istanbul and to the Malta outcome of 1921.
  • Genocide is a legal category with a legal test. Under Article II of the 1948 Convention, genocide requires proven intent to destroy a group, and Article IX provides for ICJ jurisdiction. Ankara argues that no competent international tribunal has made such a finding for the Events of 1915, and relies on the ECtHR's reasoning in Perinçek, which recognized that the historical debate should remain open.
  • Borders are settled by treaty; normalization without preconditions. Türkiye holds that the Treaties of Moscow and Kars (1921) and Lausanne (1923) permanently define its borders and international status, and that the unratified Sèvres draft has no legal force. Since 14 January 2022, Special Representative Serdar Kılıç has pursued normalization with Armenia through direct talks, which Ankara links to peace across the South Caucasus.

Where analysts differ: Many scholars argue that the Convention need not be applied by a court for historians to conclude that genocide occurred, and critics argue that the Joint Historical Commission format risks treating an established fact as an open question. Armenia has also stressed that the border treaties and the history question are separate.

Source Comparison

Issue Armenian and many international sources Turkish official sources What the primary record shows
Terminology 'Armenian Genocide' 'Events of 1915' The term 'genocide' dates from Raphael Lemkin (1944); the Convention dates from 1948.
Intent Centrally organized destruction Wartime security relocation Disputed readings of Ottoman documents, wartime diplomatic reports and 1919 tribunals.
Casualties About 1–1.5 million About 300,000, plus large Muslim losses No agreed figure; censuses are contested.
Archives Ottoman archive access and cataloguing questioned; Armenian and foreign archives cited Ottoman Archives open; calls for a joint review Both sides cite Ottoman, German, Austrian, American and British records.
Legal test Scholarly conclusion suffices; ICTJ 2003 supports the description Court finding needed; Convention not retroactive The Convention is not retroactive; the ICJ confirmed dolus specialis in 2007.
Treaties Sèvres cited by some Armenian groups Moscow, Kars and Lausanne are binding Sèvres was never ratified; Lausanne superseded it.
ASALA and JCAG-ARA Fringe violence, separate from recognition efforts Terrorism tied to the recognition campaign Attacks on Turkish diplomats, 1973–1984, are documented.
Free expression Article 301 prosecutions; murder of Hrant Dink in 2007 Legal protection exists; opposes criminalizing debate abroad ECtHR Perinçek (2015) concerns Switzerland.

Western media often use 'genocide' as settled fact and treat Türkiye's position as denial. Turkish sources often emphasize security context and insist on legal criteria. Primary documents support parts of both framings, which is why access to all archives matters. Our Fact Check: Common Claims About Türkiye Examined Against Primary Sources tests individual claims against the documents.

  • Events of 1915 (1915 Olayları): Türkiye's official term for the wartime deportations and deaths of Ottoman Armenians.
  • Sevk ve İskân Kanunu: The Relocation and Resettlement Law of 27 May 1915, published in Takvim-i Vekayi, the Ottoman official gazette, on 1 June 1915.
  • Millet-i sadıka: Ottoman term for the Armenian community as the 'loyal community'.
  • Hunchak and Dashnak: Armenian political committees founded in 1887 and 1890.
  • Dolus specialis: The specific intent to destroy a group, required for genocide under Article II of the 1948 Convention.
  • Sèvres, Alexandropol, Moscow, Kars, Lausanne: The 1920–1923 treaty sequence that ended with the settlement of Türkiye's borders.
  • ASALA and JCAG-ARA: Armenian militant groups that attacked Turkish diplomats from 1973 to 1984.
  • Joint Historical Commission: Ankara's 2005 proposal for a joint review by historians.

Related reading: The Political Axis: Türkiye's Perspective on Law, Security and Regional Affairs, The 1948 Genocide Convention and the Legal Criteria Applied to the Events of 1915, Counter-Terrorism at the Source: Türkiye's Security Doctrine and Defense Industry and Editorial Principles and Source Standards.


The Political Axis presents Türkiye's official perspective and legal positions on the issues covered, while distinguishing analysis from fact. Claims are anchored in primary sources such as treaties, UN documents, national legislation, and archival records, which are cited wherever possible.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Events of 1915?

They are the wartime deportations and mass deaths of Ottoman Armenians in 1915 and after, under the Relocation and Resettlement Law of 27 May 1915. Türkiye uses the term 'Events of 1915', while Armenia and many states and historians call them the Armenian Genocide. The dispute concerns legal characterization, intent and casualty figures, not the existence of large-scale suffering.

Does Türkiye deny that Armenians died in 1915?

No. Türkiye's official position acknowledges loss of life and, in the 23 April 2014 message, expressed condolences to the grandchildren of Armenians who died. Ankara rejects the term 'genocide', arguing that the relocation was a wartime security measure and that the legal test of intent has not been met by any competent tribunal. Critics argue that this position minimizes the scale and organization of the killings.

What does the 1948 Genocide Convention require?

Article II requires acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group as such, which courts call dolus specialis. The Convention entered into force in 1951 and is not retroactive. Ankara argues that a competent court must decide, while the ICTJ analysis of 2003 concluded that the events could be described as genocide though the Convention could not be applied retroactively.

Is the Treaty of Sèvres still valid?

No. Sèvres was signed on 10 August 1920 but never ratified, and the Treaty of Lausanne of 24 July 1923 replaced it. Türkiye's eastern border rests on the Treaties of Moscow and Kars (1921) and was affirmed by Lausanne. Some diaspora groups still invoke Sèvres, but Armenia's government has pursued border talks within the existing treaty framework.

What is the status of Türkiye–Armenia normalization?

Since 14 January 2022, Serdar Kılıç and Ruben Rubinyan have held direct talks as Special Representatives, with steps such as an earthquake aid crossing in 2023 and a leaders' meeting in June 2025. The land border remains largely closed to general traffic at the time of writing. Ankara links full normalization to peace in the South Caucasus, including the Armenia–Azerbaijan agreement initialed on 8 August 2025.

What was the 2005 Joint Historical Commission proposal?

On 10 April 2005, Prime Minister Erdoğan proposed to President Kocharyan a joint commission of Turkish, Armenian and international historians with access to all archives. Armenia replied by proposing an intergovernmental commission covering all issues, and argued that the fact of the genocide is not open to debate. The 2009 Zurich Protocols contained a subcommission on the historical dimension, but Armenia annulled them in 2018.

Perspective & Editorial Transparency Note

The Political Axis presents Türkiye's official perspective and legal positions on the issues covered, while distinguishing analysis from fact. Claims are anchored in primary sources such as treaties, UN documents, national legislation, and archival records, which are cited wherever possible.

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